Us Politics · resolved market
Trump in jail before inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x231aa55682ef2bd15dc527915d9c683b38120f8c55be15ffd67201b4a98c9007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $884,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,289,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $884,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 1c | 34,059$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.8 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 18,984$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…63d7backed Yes | 1c | 12,642$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…09dfbacked Yes | 2c | 11,344$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,029$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,480$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…7111backed Yes | 1c | 8,732$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 1c | 8,099$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,889$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…b49ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,351$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 7,311$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…50fcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…48aabacked Yes | 0c | 5,671$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,238$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5e…8225backed Yes | 1c | 5,195$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,178$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 4,700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…eb88backed Yes | 0c | 4,666$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 4,593$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…8965backed Yes | 2c | 4,064$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,600$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…df6ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,537$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Yes | 1c | 2,815$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,630$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…da09backed Yes | 1c | 2,616$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 2c | 2,207$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,923$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,881$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,826$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…0ff3backed Yes | 1c | 1,618$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…8d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,586$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,508$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…8009backed Yes | 1c | 1,335$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…446dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…1db8backed Yes | 2c | 899.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 1c | 875.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…3e78backed Yes | 2c | 750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab7…7db4backed Yes | 2c | 603.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 2c | 532.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…6068backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.