CS2 · resolved market
Will Complexity qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23216f48b4776831c85c157a014944a35d6341c94ca74fc01529a3d2fb898ffe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed No | 40c | 3,610$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.85 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…390fbacked No | 41c | 1,379$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes | 59c | 1,294$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.19 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,071$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.01 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 59c | 921.52$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.45 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…9404backed Yes | 52c | 712.42$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 43c | 254.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…8b39backed Yes | 59c | 161.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed No | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 50c | 148.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Yes | 61c | 138.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…8c1fbacked Yes | 62c | 136.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 86.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…a686backed Yes | 60c | 85.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…4b69backed Yes | 61c | 83.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…df31backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…6bd8backed Yes | 61c | 62.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…3613backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…fd27backed Yes | 61c | 44.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…a27abacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…6473backed Yes | 61c | 19.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Complexity qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?this page
- Will B8 qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will BetBoom qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will Chinggis Warriors qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?No won
- Will Fluxo qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?No won
- Will FlyQuest qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?No won
- Will HEROIC qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will Imperial qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?No won
- Will Legacy qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will Lynn Vision qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will NRG qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?No won
- Will OG qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will TYLOO qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?Yes won
- Will Wildcard qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.