Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2349f0da65ad4621af5df9610fde6a80b1ff72410964795d5dbae23be6904cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mumbai Indiansof Mumbai Indians, Chennai Super Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa918…e3b7backed Chennai Super Kings | 50c | 299.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7440…aca9backed Chennai Super Kings | 52c | 297.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…1cc3backed Chennai Super Kings | 52c | 149.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Mumbai Indians | 48c | 145.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…0a13backed Chennai Super Kings | 54c | 140.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Chennai Super Kings | 49c | 133.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Mumbai Indians | 45c | 132.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…29b2backed Chennai Super Kings | 51c | 131.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…08b8backed Mumbai Indians | 52c | 115.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed Chennai Super Kings | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…7594backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…fcedbacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…a74fbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4c…8bd8backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 94.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 94.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f75…3018backed Chennai Super Kings | 49c | 79.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4677…70dabacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 78.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…8749backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 62.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 145 | 37.9%55 W · 90 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Chennai Super Kings | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Chennai Super Kings | 50c | 56.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…1e3bbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 52.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…1eecbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316d…c895backed Chennai Super Kings | 50c | 40.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…cc6ebacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f863backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…c816backed Chennai Super Kings | 51c | 38.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596c…28ebbacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…6deebacked Chennai Super Kings | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…6b4abacked Chennai Super Kings | 52c | 33.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ab…283fbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…6744backed Mumbai Indians | 41c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…5750backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…5ad5backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…98babacked Chennai Super Kings | 51c | 20.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super KingsChennai Super Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.