TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $104K September 1–7?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes12c39,110$4,884 inLost-$4,884.422216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked No74c16,189$11,976 inWon+$4,212.5313561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes2c10,008$159 inLost-$159.361198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,206$43 inLost-$42.531,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes20c4,201$827 inLost-$827.4555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…86a2backed Yes3c2,000$56 inLost-$5680%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes2c2,000$34 inLost-$33.7125824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d2…2184backed Yes5c1,006$50 inLost-$49.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…9b2ebacked Yes2c730$16 inLost-$16.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-61%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0cb…9f08backed Yes2c697.41$15 inLost-$14.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5020…215fbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf353…7aecbacked Yes18c112.78$20 inLost-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a0…69e0backed No80c100$80 inWon+$204100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes33c50$17 inLost-$16.5120%0 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.