Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10db86a4b881d5fc876f1e9587a82e3dbb55e28ed010f01532d421734839b2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 38c | 17,608$6,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,639.45 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 1c | 15,777$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 34c | 15,187$5,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,203.99 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 63c | 11,739$7,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.67 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 62c | 9,830$6,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,783.78 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 22c | 8,130$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.3 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 28c | 8,046$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.15 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 67c | 6,693$4,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.96 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes | 17c | 6,428$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 73c | 4,565$3,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.55 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 19c | 3,722$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.26 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 66c | 3,181$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 64c | 3,140$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.16 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 49c | 2,730$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d10…f709backed Yes | 10c | 2,576$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed No | 76c | 2,569$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 74c | 2,500$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 35c | 2,500$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.3 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 1,701$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.54 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 17c | 692.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 41c | 691.83$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 512.31$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.52 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e17…fa91backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 57c | 300$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…fd7cbacked Yes | 14c | 281.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 54c | 270.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…abd5backed Yes | 11c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…1011backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 66c | 146.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 73c | 140.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…412ebacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…e376backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4609…4fdcbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…c3f9backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…4eb0backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 50c | 101.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…71edbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…16e6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…e937backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…3228backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 50c | 78.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…c6febacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…b648backed No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 75c | 53.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…7aecbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f5e4backed Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes | 42c | 34.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…2c8ebacked No | 71c | 33.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 68c | 30.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf043…61d9backed No | 57c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…1e20backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 1–7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $103K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $111K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $113K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.