Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $113K September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25959cdb5a1d4aaabbd7f5ec8a45e04ac4d9e0f4483f67da8dc1049f9f56aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b70…aaddbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 31c | 18,897$5,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,834.03 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 61c | 10,206$6,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,981.49 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 16c | 7,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed No | 37c | 4,433$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.86 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 65c | 4,345$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.62 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 72c | 2,500$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.19 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed No | 61c | 2,126$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 52c | 1,960$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.55 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 77c | 1,900$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.55 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,728$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.64 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 21c | 1,635$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.9 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 13c | 1,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 69c | 1,434$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.19 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 55c | 1,426$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.35 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 73c | 1,224$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.42 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 47c | 848.94$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd09b…78e9backed Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 801$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 590.22$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 72c | 460.85$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…0ec5backed No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…3c19backed Yes | 53c | 380$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 46c | 371.53$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 32c | 230$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5d…2fafbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…c3f9backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…31fcbacked No | 16c | 84.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…dd68backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 36c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 55c | 72.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…71edbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x259a…991dbacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 72c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…16e6backed No | 38c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $113K September 1–7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $103K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $111K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.