Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd80119a4eae899886b04c90d58e50061bce94bff86b0eec0c0400df9efc199b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 16c | 38,016$6,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,227.8 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 71c | 11,204$7,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.02 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,173$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 26c | 7,050$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.99 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 76c | 5,500$4,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…86a2backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…2fe1backed Yes | 4c | 1,505$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…7935backed Yes | 39c | 1,092$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 26c | 701$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 40c | 221$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…8e0bbacked Yes | 16c | 134.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…16e6backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…8dd9backed Yes | 48c | 76.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K September 1–7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $103K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $111K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $113K September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K September 1–7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.