Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2360b7290341acbafd3c43e044ae94684631b3cfbb1d98f27f816555edf08173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,583$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 3c | 667.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 75c | 666.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 7c | 420.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.44 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 359.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 350.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 40c | 329.35$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 242.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 11c | 242$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 8c | 241.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.52 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 236.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 116.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 24c | 103$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 59c | 102.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 50c | 89.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 12c | 85.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…a702backed Yes | 27c | 78.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 64.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 73c | 44.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 44.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 40.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 76c | 39.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468a…ae90backed Yes | 30c | 36.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…d9dbbacked Yes | 52c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 33.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed Yes | 64c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…793bbacked Yes | 53c | 19.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.