Us Politics · resolved market
Will Arkansas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x239574fe1fe5754d6e0cc55cdffe30703e7f76ef29535c203e1290ed3a3433b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 20c | 8,347$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.02 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 20c | 4,172$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 24c | 3,208$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 24c | 994$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.93 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 21c | 615.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 20c | 532.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…9482backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 18cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 19c | 261.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…6b72backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arkansas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?this page
- Will Alabama have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Alaska have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?Yes won
- Will Minnesota have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Oklahoma have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Tennessee have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Texas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Utah have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Virginia have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.