Us Politics · resolved market
Will Oklahoma have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa307f951da35ce15b31080871af3c86adf84ba59a0825727d8d854afce1597f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 47c | 6,188$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.24 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 35c | 4,272$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.76 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 48c | 3,451$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 45c | 2,505$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 59c | 2,060$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…9482backed No | 47c | 1,339$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 18cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 44c | 1,202$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.41 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 29c | 950$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 59c | 800$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 475$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 50c | 467.18$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 55c | 360.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 57c | 281.75$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 51c | 271$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…ba15backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…b8fdbacked Yes | 49c | 36.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…7e8dbacked Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 60c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oklahoma have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?this page
- Will Alabama have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Alaska have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?Yes won
- Will Arkansas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Minnesota have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Tennessee have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Texas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Utah have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Virginia have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.