Us Politics · resolved market
Will Alabama have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefee356c98f6352092cd3a837d9cef9ab003fd28e4339c5f6ba10237ddb12c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 20c | 6,675$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 24c | 5,702$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.86 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…9482backed No | 15c | 2,748$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 18cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 75c | 757.5$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…7ebfbacked No | 76c | 525$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed No | 38c | 492.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 23c | 477.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Yes | 24c | 237.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 28c | 218$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…6b72backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 21c | 119.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd442…616dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d00…35f5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alabama have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?this page
- Will Alaska have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?Yes won
- Will Arkansas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Minnesota have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Oklahoma have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Tennessee have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Texas have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Utah have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
- Will Virginia have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.