Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2399ac8d1aedc49528301672f855942d22939de2ea52c5d9b2e81cfc90997227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,741$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.4 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 66c | 679.24$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.56 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 17c | 454.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 24c | 322.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.51 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes | 12c | 125.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 30c | 109.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…4502backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 27c | 74.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed Yes | 67c | 71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 41c | 69.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 32c | 46.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…ffa1backed No | 70c | 33.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…673abacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…86bfbacked No | 53c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…a977backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…edffbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.