Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ae6170d77199dffc1b0e4f1f955dfde9f725f586fbb13784523c9535e5c9f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8731…318dbacked No | 0c | 19,208$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 64c | 6,623$4,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 4,265$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 74c | 2,140$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.82 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 1,303$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.83 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,298$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.94 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 70c | 936.66$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 27c | 924.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.97 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 45c | 612.65$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.69 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 35c | 381.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.75 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 337.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.67 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 300.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.87 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked Yes | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 27c | 299.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.51 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 9c | 275.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 28c | 266.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 46c | 205.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 33c | 152.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…2034backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 33c | 121.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 26c | 81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…b61ebacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed Yes | 28c | 67.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 65.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 30c | 63.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…d919backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 60c | 48.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 45.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 28c | 36.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 50c | 28.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…22f3backed Yes | 61c | 27.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 68c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 64c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-02-20?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.