NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23af91754de9912f81062b74cfebeb935d58d6fc32b74af7d5d801f3c07988f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 50c | 31,749$15,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,851.68 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 4,650$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,222$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.78 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 47c | 755.41$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.94 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 685.66$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.35 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 51c | 470.59$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.59 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 311.57$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…9740backed Under | 53c | 307.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 243.63$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 225.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 189.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 60c | 173.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 71.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 49c | 63.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 51c | 58.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 55.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 51c | 47.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 41.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 35.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 62c | 28.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Over | 49c | 23.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…8105backed Under | 45c | 23.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Over | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec2…3fe2backed Under | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Under | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. Blue JacketsSharks won
- Sharks vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sharks vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.