Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23b7b339706d9b130824a1cdfcf395b08739f4f23bf7abc02f3f64379300cdc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 19c | 879.26$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 78c | 284.29$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.38 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 11c | 210.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.08 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 77c | 195.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 156.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…c912backed Yes | 16c | 155.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 153.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 148.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 77c | 142.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 130.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 126.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 125.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 20c | 109.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 75c | 99.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 44c | 99.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 95.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 94.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 24c | 89.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 51c | 88.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 72c | 76.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 60c | 75.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 27c | 75.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 75.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 70c | 71.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 70.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345a…9dc9backed Yes | 70c | 65.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 70c | 61.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 69c | 58.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 28c | 53.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 57c | 52.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 52.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 50.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 48.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 43.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 74c | 40.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 56c | 39.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 42c | 38.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 38.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 37.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 37.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 35.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 72c | 33.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 46c | 26.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.