Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d72228d1b969a944fe922562feccdc06ea347c82e14dcfa42e82fe38daabce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 12c | 638.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 28c | 323.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.44 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 192.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 185.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 49c | 184.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 46c | 183.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 51c | 164.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 63c | 141$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…5029backed No | 10c | 138.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 135.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 62c | 129.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 44c | 126.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes | 34c | 95.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 30c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 50c | 84.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 27c | 71.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 30c | 69.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 67.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 26c | 63.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 62.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 61.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 56.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 47c | 50.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 29c | 37.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 35.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…abd7backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 31.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…a546backed No | 72c | 31.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 58c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 76c | 17.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.