Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0e068aa0ffc2ce40170b1fb688871242fdc5ff518e83af7ef59db6e496abdbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 4c | 3,464$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…c984backed Yes | 8c | 907.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 489.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 79c | 430.24$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 71c | 426.54$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 4c | 313.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 52c | 297.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 74c | 274.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 207.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 63c | 199.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…5029backed Yes | 7c | 199.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…327fbacked No | 35c | 194.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 155.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 34c | 153.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f7…2812backed Yes | 74c | 134.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 133.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 25c | 123$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 67c | 118.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 113.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 26c | 94.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 75c | 88.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…0f23backed Yes | 26c | 85.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +236.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes | 52c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…a3c9backed Yes | 53c | 68.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 75c | 68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 67.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 66c | 66.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 22c | 65.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 74c | 64.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…fa39backed No | 30c | 62.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 63c | 62.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…04edbacked Yes | 55c | 62.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…8963backed Yes | 42c | 42.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 37c | 40.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 55c | 38.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 71c | 35.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 33.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 60c | 30.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 30.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 50c | 29.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked No | 45c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 28.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 25.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…64d5backed Yes | 62c | 22.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…db89backed No | 48c | 21.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…2792backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.