Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Everton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23dc89fbb460315965aea8972f3766df92104683e2852fc458310bbcde917106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 43c | 3,676$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.95 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 33c | 3,581$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.16 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 72c | 3,022$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 75c | 2,518$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.27 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 25c | 2,260$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 38c | 1,849$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.72 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 56c | 892.93$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.46 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 71c | 773.52$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.52 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…6a86backed Yes | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 583.8$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.23 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 25c | 355.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.84 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 15c | 297.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7679…8c3abacked Yes | 15c | 200.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Yes | 14c | 157.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 25c | 133$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 32c | 109.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…c40ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 15c | 99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…944fbacked Yes | 14c | 94.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2c…a146backed Yes | 15c | 75.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9b2ebacked Yes | 15c | 69.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…6871backed Yes | 47c | 54.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed No | 75c | 39.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…6db4backed Yes | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…c774backed Yes | 65c | 19.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Everton end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-14?No won
- Will Everton win on 2024-12-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.