Tennis · resolved market
Kigali 2: Alexander Donski vs Max Houkes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23def3962aff7931bdb6beb681498baab45624821f93bbea69225159f0c040fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Max Houkesof Alexander Donski, Max Houkes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,866 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Max Houkes | 64c | 2,031$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.25 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Max Houkes | 55c | 1,812$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Alexander Donski | 32c | 1,414$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.49 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alexander Donski | 36c | 1,200$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Alexander Donski | 22c | 1,060$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.95 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Alexander Donski | 40c | 916.37$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.37 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Max Houkes | 67c | 896$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Alexander Donski | 34c | 882.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 305 | 42.6%130 W · 175 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Max Houkes | 66c | 800$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.68 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Max Houkes | 68c | 740.69$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.69 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Max Houkes | 71c | 615.73$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Alexander Donski | 34c | 589.02$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.33 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d6…2546backed Alexander Donski | 18c | 579.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Alexander Donski | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…9dfdbacked Max Houkes | 68c | 456.61$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Max Houkes | 73c | 427$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alexander Donski | 19c | 395.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…25ddbacked Alexander Donski | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Alexander Donski | 34c | 294.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Alexander Donski | 34c | 290.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…8572backed Alexander Donski | 17c | 289.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Max Houkes | 78c | 271.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Max Houkes | 69c | 261.61$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alexander Donski | 14c | 250.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Alexander Donski | 16c | 245.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…dcdfbacked Alexander Donski | 15c | 236$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068a…6fe7backed Max Houkes | 73c | 206.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alexander Donski | 40c | 193.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Alexander Donski | 33c | 185.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…e984backed Max Houkes | 68c | 183.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Alexander Donski | 31c | 181.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Alexander Donski | 36c | 161$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Max Houkes | 67c | 154$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Alexander Donski | 39c | 137.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Alexander Donski | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Alexander Donski | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Max Houkes | 67c | 114.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Alexander Donski | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alexander Donski | 33c | 101.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Max Houkes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Max Houkes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…9da8backed Alexander Donski | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe30c…3f38backed Alexander Donski | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Alexander Donski | 16c | 87.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Alexander Donski | 23c | 83.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Alexander Donski | 32c | 80.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Alexander Donski | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Max Houkes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…f11bbacked Max Houkes | 67c | 74.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Max Houkes | 67c | 74.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Alexander Donski | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Alexander Donski | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Alexander Donski | 33c | 53.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Max Houkes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 355 | 59.4%211 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Max Houkes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Alexander Donski | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alexander Donski | 39c | 42.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…a9cebacked Alexander Donski | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…fb49backed Alexander Donski | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Max Houkes | 67c | 40.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Alexander Donski | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Max Houkes | 66c | 39.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Max Houkes | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Max Houkes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Alexander Donski | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Alexander Donski | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Max Houkes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Max Houkes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Max Houkes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Max Houkes | 66c | 25.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…ae93backed Max Houkes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed Max Houkes | 78c | 21.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Max Houkes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Max Houkes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kigali 2: Alexander Donski vs Max Houkesthis page
- Donski vs. Houkes: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Donski vs. Houkes: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Donski vs HoukesHoukes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.