Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e0a6eb7fbf8238caa66c8821e9a2db1f5ad31ead02e62ddbdc65257f411fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 1c | 4,422$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,279$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 999.26$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes | 3c | 901.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 450.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 405.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0e…12cbbacked Yes | 5c | 287.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 280.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 6c | 255.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 18c | 253.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 197.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked Yes | 27c | 186.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 182.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…b1d1backed Yes | 15c | 171.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed No | 71c | 147.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 10c | 110.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 110.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 10c | 105.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 69c | 99.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 64c | 96.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 95.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 94.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 15c | 93.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 35c | 90.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 26c | 87.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 61.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 66c | 56.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 26c | 51.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 51.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 48.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 47.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 74c | 47.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 65c | 45.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…4dd9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…f0d4backed Yes | 28c | 39.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 38.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b2…d234backed Yes | 33c | 38.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 73c | 36.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 72c | 36.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 43c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 50c | 28.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.