Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ca4288f4f34d8db60d8badb6bc565e026167d107f585dae2706538d168599fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 192.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 164.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 28c | 134.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 16c | 109.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 93.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 90.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 76.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 75.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 30c | 62.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 76c | 62.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 59.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 70c | 58.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 71c | 54.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b221backed No | 71c | 54.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…2ae6backed Yes | 22c | 54.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 28c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 69c | 34.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked No | 74c | 32.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 70c | 27.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…5621backed No | 80c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.