Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f1961693b168608ba8734a0ca89fb9b91e5c53d72b29b85bbda59e968ca0117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 21c | 337.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 278.1$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 15c | 273.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 219.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 72c | 191.35$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 16c | 170.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 166.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 74c | 162.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 61c | 157.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 10c | 157.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 20c | 144.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 23c | 137.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 41c | 137.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 129.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 117.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 54c | 105.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d704backed Yes | 70c | 91.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7e…b611backed Yes | 68c | 90.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 88.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 88.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 48c | 78.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 56c | 77.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 55.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb9…90f7backed Yes | 78c | 55.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 38c | 54.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 76c | 52.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 42c | 44.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 44.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 37c | 43.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 41.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…962fbacked Yes | 66c | 39.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 33.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 78c | 29.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…d684backed Yes | 67c | 28.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 35c | 28.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 70c | 25.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 62c | 23.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 59c | 22.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 80c | 22.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 62c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 66c | 21.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 56c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 67c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 58c | 19.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 62c | 18.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 62c | 17.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 63c | 17.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 63c | 17.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.