Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Rublev (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ed055570db138807e4d658fbd57499924f098abdfe26f012c15d3e6af499cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Alcaraz | 63c | 5,734$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Rublev | 37c | 2,250$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Rublev | 37c | 1,598$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.2 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Rublev | 37c | 1,358$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.46 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Rublev | 48c | 1,038$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Alcaraz | 63c | 985.71$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.71 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…f6b7backed Alcaraz | 52c | 865.24$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rublev | 37c | 500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Rublev | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rublev | 37c | 411.78$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Alcaraz | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rublev | 39c | 245.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Rublev | 37c | 161.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Rublev | 39c | 128.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Rublev | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Rublev | 40c | 118.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Rublev | 46c | 108.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…60d0backed Rublev | 41c | 95.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…8465backed Alcaraz | 61c | 92.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Alcaraz | 59c | 85.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…966fbacked Rublev | 46c | 70.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…1c7dbacked Rublev | 43c | 46.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz | 59c | 43.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…aef6backed Alcaraz | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3024backed Alcaraz | 61c | 34.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Alcaraz | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rublev | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Alcaraz | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 53 | 77.4%41 W · 12 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Rublev (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey RublevAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs RublevAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.