Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23fbc7a3e6a74ffcacc7e0f5d7aeca9c5a3c86c21927020b81ade1ab17b0233d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa383…817cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,523$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 2,058$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 12c | 1,742$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 78c | 293.87$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 12c | 163$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 15c | 159.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 151.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 22c | 141$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 116.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 20c | 84.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 84.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 19c | 77.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 55.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 51.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 80c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.