Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f438dcab7c89416df8a4fa4eaf86c3f9ae8416baa3733dd69fc0ab6486b9fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 70c | 2,078$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.97 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 60c | 1,892$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.18 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,413$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 7c | 853$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 849.2$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 847.32$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 31c | 633.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked No | 10c | 573.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 489.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 484.57$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 64c | 465.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 412.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 392$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 371.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 339.69$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 7c | 331.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 29c | 327.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 6c | 319.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 53c | 305$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 288.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 56c | 262$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 41c | 246.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 225.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 24c | 201$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 197.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 64c | 196.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 192.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 61c | 182.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 46c | 181.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 180.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 56c | 177.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 36c | 168.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 57c | 141.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 73c | 140.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 79c | 118.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 37c | 114.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed No | 40c | 112.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 105.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 25c | 101.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 100.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 75c | 94.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 46c | 92.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 73c | 90.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 66c | 89.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 88.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 19c | 87.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 15c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 69.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 75c | 67.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 63.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 38c | 62.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 27c | 61.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…67e8backed No | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 60.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 74c | 59.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 78c | 58.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 45c | 47.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 42.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 31c | 42.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 79c | 41.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed Yes | 60c | 41.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 39.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 39.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 56c | 38.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 55c | 38.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 34c | 38.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 35.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…b324backed Yes | 62c | 33.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 50c | 32.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 37c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 59c | 31.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 31.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 64c | 29.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.