Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7217383daad9bc880622108aad52fbec1cd48973a7d5e935a1488107ca0a28a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 1,058$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 977.94$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 9c | 619.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 502.2$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 456.59$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 375.42$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 369.18$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 315.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 301.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 16c | 244.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 243.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 75c | 228.63$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 192$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 169.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 168.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 27c | 164$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 25c | 159.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 21c | 158.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 133$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 129.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 127.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 30c | 120.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 19c | 103.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 53c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 97.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 75c | 95.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 93.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 15c | 88.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 75c | 87.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 80.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 28c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 26c | 75.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 35c | 75.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 30c | 72.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 65.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 64.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 61.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 26c | 60.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 24c | 47.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 47.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 74c | 44.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 41.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 60c | 36.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 35.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…f4e4backed Yes | 36c | 35.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 31c | 34.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 33.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 75c | 25.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 64c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 66c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 54c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 65c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.