MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2412ab6f8aa4e66b3a221f0b2dd47c1cf99efe1bf506daff7cf3904c6dd139af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Rays | 0c | 15,533$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Royals | 41c | 2,439$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.21 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 10c | 1,775$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Royals | 39c | 1,250$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.97 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Rays | 59c | 1,046$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.87 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rays | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rays | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Rays | 61c | 999.98$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Royals | 41c | 788.47$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.47 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 38c | 679.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.59 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 11c | 653.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Rays | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 13c | 438.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 37c | 420.02$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.94 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 39c | 336.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Rays | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Royals | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rays | 10c | 206$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Royals | 27c | 171.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rays | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rays | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Royals | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Rays | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Rays | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 39c | 54.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Rays | 61c | 37.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rays | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 61c | 27.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rays | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Rays | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.