Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24508dd860fe5c95515637d7e34f190003a532790b051c0e65a8a26dac342f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…cec9backed Yes | 1c | 1,802$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 359.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 304.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 58c | 236.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 202.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…09c1backed Yes | 38c | 199.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 50c | 179.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 158.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…9708backed No | 70c | 137.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 133.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 122.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 56c | 107.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 96.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 28c | 83.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 48c | 75.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 74c | 67.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 64.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 59c | 63.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 61.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 59.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 43c | 58.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 47c | 55.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 48c | 54.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 51.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 49.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 47.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 63c | 45.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 67c | 41.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 75c | 38.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 37.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 59c | 36.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 35.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 39c | 35.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 32c | 34.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…4240backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 30.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 29.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 69c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 71c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 49c | 26.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 63c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 69c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…08d5backed No | 57c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 71c | 18.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 63c | 18.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 66c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 82°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.