Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SK (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2454195275e0dfa8961c43765cf586181a3ed6206f00cc4d282de35f6179369e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SK Gamingof SK Gaming, Shifters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Shifters | 71c | 2,613$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.13 | 979 | 48.6%476 W · 503 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ba…246cbacked SK Gaming | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.14 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Shifters | 62c | 1,493$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.77 | 720 | 41.4%298 W · 422 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Shifters | 72c | 930$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.6 | 471 | 50.5%238 W · 233 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed SK Gaming | 56c | 872.55$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.55 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Shifters | 71c | 671.53$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.78 | 642 | 51.1%328 W · 314 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked SK Gaming | 29c | 504.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.53 | 663 | 44.2%293 W · 370 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed SK Gaming | 28c | 499.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.97 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…c175backed SK Gaming | 29c | 444.44$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.55 | 415 | 27.5%114 W · 301 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed SK Gaming | 29c | 430.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.94 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed SK Gaming | 56c | 354.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked SK Gaming | 29c | 240$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 356 | 42.4%151 W · 205 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Shifters | 43c | 224.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed SK Gaming | 41c | 210$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 208 | 42.3%88 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed SK Gaming | 28c | 203.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 310 | 46.8%145 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed Shifters | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 186 | 52.7%98 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed SK Gaming | 59c | 195.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Shifters | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Shifters | 43c | 174.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 1,528 | 50.5%772 W · 756 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…9c6dbacked SK Gaming | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Shifters | 47c | 157.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed SK Gaming | 53c | 137.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 631 | 49.9%315 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed SK Gaming | 55c | 120.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 1,023 | 54.5%558 W · 465 L | +49.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked SK Gaming | 62c | 112.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 226 | 65.5%148 W · 78 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked SK Gaming | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 471 | 52%245 W · 226 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…cf07backed SK Gaming | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shifters | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 806 | 42.6%343 W · 463 L | -25.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…c18fbacked SK Gaming | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed SK Gaming | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Shifters | 35c | 96.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +260.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…2b4fbacked SK Gaming | 29c | 88.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 531 | 49.5%263 W · 268 L | +30.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked SK Gaming | 43c | 57.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,145 | 30.7%352 W · 793 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Shifters | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed SK Gaming | 59c | 30.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,185 | 66.1%783 W · 402 L | +70.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Shifters | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 262 | 49.2%129 W · 133 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Shifters | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…d80dbacked SK Gaming | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SK (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shifters vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonSK Gaming won
- LoL: Shifters vs SK Gaming - Game 1 WinnerSK Gaming won
- LoL: Shifters vs SK Gaming - Game 2 WinnerSK Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.