Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2457014ce34693381f82bfa9dde67bc6b488ac731d6b4ae611baddaf41e6ecdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,438 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 266.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 44c | 232.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 76c | 183.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 152$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 75c | 133.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 127.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed Yes | 77c | 113.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 111.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 110.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 104.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 94.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 28c | 89.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 82.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 80.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 70.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked Yes | 29c | 69.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 64c | 59.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…fe50backed Yes | 30c | 57.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 55.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 33c | 53.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…2860backed Yes | 26c | 49.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 48.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 47.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 29c | 45.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 44.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 42c | 42.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 41.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 24c | 41.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 39.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 39.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 53c | 37.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb733…e5edbacked Yes | 38c | 33.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +134%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 29.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 69c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…9fbabacked No | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.