MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x245f554a55a606c4dcdb9a4bcd4496e2219ffd90d09a7663f26fe6468d01a1d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Diamondbacks, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mets | 60c | 11,725$7,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,035.19 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Diamondbacks | 40c | 10,264$4,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,158.78 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Mets | 57c | 7,500$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,247.06 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Diamondbacks | 39c | 4,964$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.12 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mets | 7c | 3,113$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Diamondbacks | 41c | 2,600$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Mets | 61c | 1,967$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks | 39c | 1,671$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.3 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mets | 40c | 1,215$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.15 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Diamondbacks | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mets | 60c | 850.2$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.12 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Diamondbacks | 40c | 733.14$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.88 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mets | 28c | 704.47$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks | 56c | 685.71$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 619.09$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.42 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 40c | 566.17$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Diamondbacks | 41c | 535.2$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.77 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 504.76$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.76 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Diamondbacks | 39c | 426.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mets | 12c | 420.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Mets | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Diamondbacks | 39c | 285.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Mets | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Diamondbacks | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Mets | 61c | 245.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Mets | 60c | 228.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mets | 19c | 225.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 39c | 175.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Mets | 36c | 116.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Mets | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Diamondbacks | 70c | 74.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mets | 58c | 67.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Mets | 59c | 62.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Diamondbacks | 41c | 59.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mets | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Mets | 62c | 36.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Diamondbacks | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Mets | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Mets | 47c | 23.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Mets | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…bb6bbacked Mets | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Mets | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.