Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2470bba520bba8626946e9d528c73a454fc33fdbd4924072bee71642e69e33b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 25c | 476.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 6c | 440.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 16c | 435.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 367.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 4c | 309.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 296.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.24 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.46 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 79c | 249.09$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 8c | 232.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 156.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 7c | 155.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 46c | 153.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 10c | 150.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 16c | 144.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 16c | 130.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 78c | 127.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 124.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 64c | 103.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 20c | 102.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 18c | 102.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 49c | 93.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 27c | 84.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…b49cbacked No | 50c | 76.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 64c | 65.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 53c | 63.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…417abacked Yes | 72c | 60.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 42c | 58.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 55.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 54.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 53c | 52.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…20fbbacked Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 53c | 48.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 28c | 45.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 54c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed No | 47c | 37.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 60c | 31.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 64c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 57c | 29.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 27.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 64c | 22.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 65c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 69c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.