Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Jan Choinski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a504d11d510365cabe380f3d3195579504bd124919b0ce36c32020310fe831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Choinskiof McCabe, Choinski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf988…f5f6backed Choinski | 70c | 2,797$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed McCabe | 50c | 1,914$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.88 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed McCabe | 38c | 1,752$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.76 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed McCabe | 65c | 1,692$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Choinski | 32c | 1,262$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.97 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed McCabe | 57c | 1,168$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.89 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Choinski | 39c | 1,062$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.21 | 1,163 | 37.6%437 W · 726 L | -28.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked McCabe | 30c | 814.26$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.92 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Choinski | 71c | 386.48$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…2287backed Choinski | 67c | 381.35$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed McCabe | 5c | 277$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Choinski | 70c | 178.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked McCabe | 35c | 129$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed McCabe | 52c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked McCabe | 43c | 111.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed McCabe | 35c | 108.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 6,898 | 48.9%3,374 W · 3,524 L | +61.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed McCabe | 35c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1a…9359backed McCabe | 47c | 86.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Choinski | 37c | 82.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Choinski | 37c | 81.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed McCabe | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 290 | 64.5%187 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed McCabe | 29c | 64.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Choinski | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Choinski | 68c | 61.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 842 | 60.9%513 W · 329 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Choinski | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Choinski | 70c | 59.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…15fcbacked McCabe | 63c | 53.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2139backed McCabe | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed McCabe | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 7,227 | 49.7%3,591 W · 3,636 L | +118.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…0bb0backed Choinski | 48c | 41.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked McCabe | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Choinski | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed McCabe | 61c | 28.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Choinski | 62c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked McCabe | 63c | 24.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.