Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24d2888c67e9cb377e85b7547068d6bb6f5fd5a61e03c5058f9929811b0545f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,620 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,383$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 13c | 803.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.75 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 17c | 699.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.58 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 536.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.15 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 47c | 509$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.66 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 508.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 497.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 429.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 331.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.86 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 304.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.72 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.08 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 296.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 14c | 257.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 232.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 190.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 12c | 189.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 189.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 159.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 157.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 144.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 128.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 126.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 123.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 119.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 111.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 23c | 99.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 17c | 84.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…e855backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 79.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 42c | 72.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 35c | 57.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 46c | 44.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 41.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 41c | 36.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 33.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 26.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 65c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.