Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb46cd672f1b0a7643330110d97e03e00783eae60f56b6bcca7f3f7a1767c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,274 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40dd…7fa0backed Yes | 35c | 2,625$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…ddffbacked Yes | 35c | 2,590$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 1c | 2,336$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d4…4404backed No | 65c | 1,329$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5fe3backed No | 65c | 1,307$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…a22ebacked No | 65c | 1,296$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…79a7backed No | 65c | 1,283$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 823.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 46c | 765.32$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.32 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 25c | 530.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.62 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 417.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…8c38backed No | 79c | 361.86$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 323.6$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 294.63$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 259.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 254.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 39c | 240.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…e855backed Yes | 42c | 238.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 233$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.24 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 199.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 199.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 44c | 195.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 192.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 172.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 151.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 31c | 147.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 145.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 119$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 110.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 109.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 77c | 109.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 30c | 99.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 57c | 96.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…1454backed Yes | 54c | 94.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 30c | 91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…c9e1backed Yes | 28c | 90.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked No | 22c | 89.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 46c | 85.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 84.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 84.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 81.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 44c | 80.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 75.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 59c | 74.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 24c | 73.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 69.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 66.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 30c | 65.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 78c | 64.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 63.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 35c | 60.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 45c | 57.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 78c | 54.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 59c | 50.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 77c | 50.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 30c | 50.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 49.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 23c | 43.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…71fcbacked No | 75c | 39.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 27c | 37.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…eeefbacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…0649backed No | 72c | 34.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…2a8fbacked No | 76c | 33.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…544cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 77c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 32.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…a8fcbacked No | 58c | 30.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…5229backed No | 70c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 28.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…bbebbacked No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…f6b1backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 23.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9c…ade0backed No | 80c | 22.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 79c | 21.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…f89dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.