MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2519c3747f7993e06e536da7f8960012b731a204bd08204fb90ff67bbb4afdd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 489.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 451.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 387.19$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 45c | 220.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Over | 6c | 203.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Under | 60c | 190$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 17c | 160.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 56c | 142.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 126.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 40c | 120.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 80.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 54c | 78.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 56c | 51.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 51.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 47.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 46c | 39.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 58c | 36.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 59c | 31.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 36c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 42c | 29.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…9f09backed Under | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.