MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15db6c6635a0a721e34a571c1279e907aeb49fbd4980e93dc0776c49ec63fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 1,306$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.4 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 895.31$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 529.63$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.26 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 509.47$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 495.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 460$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 441.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.87 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 240.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 196.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 196.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 113.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 109.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 108.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 73.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 68.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 61.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 60.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 60.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 57.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 51.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 49.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 46.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Detroit Tigers | 77c | 45.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Detroit Tigers | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 35.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 32.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 30.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Detroit Tigers | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 17.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.