MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253622317ba24a7a262687a0836ca6d318ac41cd7769247e8fe954c9ad10dd63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 4,145$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.31 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,716$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.59 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,005$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.14 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 966.25$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.36 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 750$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 972 | 53.1%516 W · 456 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 368.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 289$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 268$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 149.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 117.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 110.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 53.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 52.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 52.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 46.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 43.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 38.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 37.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 925 | 56.3%521 W · 404 L | +30.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.