MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb57331891908ddc000d986ce84140aaf5cf6162dabc722c91c87304874711f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 31,489$17,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,003.8 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 12,641$5,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,826.12 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 9,498$4,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,131.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 3,073$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.33 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 46c | 2,006$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.24 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 47c | 887.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.63 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 867.84$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.96 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5176…a132backed Under | 50c | 817.58$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 816.74$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.94 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 769.08$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.54 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 706.66$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.6 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 695$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.65 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 643.64$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.24 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 54c | 497.32$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.99 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 52c | 385.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 54c | 376.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 46c | 284$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 54c | 256.53$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 69c | 226.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 211.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 53c | 187.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 46c | 186.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 178$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 104.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 54c | 59.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 46c | 51.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 66c | 45.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 35c | 45.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Over | 34c | 41.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 53c | 38.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 54c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 54c | 35.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 64c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 55c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Under | 64c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.