Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Peyton Stearns vs Amanda Anisimova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254a7f6ee74e97f2d3d7f8e658af2c7bbfbffc4e1d30a75e38576d04e699c4b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Anisimovaof Stearns, Anisimova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Stearns | 6c | 10,721$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.49 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stearns | 0c | 7,402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stearns | 6c | 4,968$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.53 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stearns | 6c | 4,109$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stearns | 9c | 3,847$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.81 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Stearns | 17c | 3,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Stearns | 15c | 3,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Stearns | 18c | 2,627$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.86 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Stearns | 6c | 2,571$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stearns | 3c | 2,540$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Stearns | 13c | 2,356$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.65 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Stearns | 16c | 2,200$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed Stearns | 16c | 1,791$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.61 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Stearns | 1c | 1,270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Stearns | 13c | 1,226$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Stearns | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Stearns | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…1a99backed Stearns | 2c | 929.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Stearns | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Stearns | 16c | 700.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stearns | 15c | 644.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…8ea1backed Stearns | 17c | 510.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Stearns | 7c | 469.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Stearns | 17c | 462$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Stearns | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Stearns | 12c | 314.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Stearns | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Stearns | 7c | 272.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…40c3backed Stearns | 9c | 225.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Stearns | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Stearns | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Stearns | 14c | 132.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…2afabacked Stearns | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9f95backed Stearns | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Stearns | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Stearns | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Peyton Stearns vs Amanda Anisimovathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Stearns vs AnisimovaAnisimova won
- Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5)Anisimova won
- Stearns vs. Anisimova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Stearns vs. Anisimova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Stearns vs. Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.