Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x255720baff6aa8a8397b084113684c4e651edf01a929f96ef1ef4e156937cf8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 247.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…b432backed Yes | 70c | 158.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 148.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 130.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 35c | 129.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 120.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…cc1abacked Yes | 40c | 116.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 107.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 64c | 102.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 93.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 60c | 71.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 70.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 63.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 63.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed Yes | 66c | 60.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 55c | 58.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 50c | 57.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 56c | 57.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 28c | 56.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 70c | 52.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 55c | 52.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 39c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 48.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 31c | 45.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 62c | 41.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 39.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…e1ccbacked Yes | 62c | 39.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 39.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 44c | 37.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 36.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 34.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 51c | 34.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 68c | 32.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…5b16backed Yes | 63c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…6aaebacked Yes | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 48c | 29.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes | 51c | 28.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 65c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 25.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 42c | 24.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 54c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 55c | 22.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 21.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.