Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x255b42f4249fd93aef66daffbbe590efb7dcd305842d5490e57bf10c4bdf2287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 69c | 875.65$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.9 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 600.64$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 23c | 530.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.02 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 21c | 233.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 28c | 199.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 75c | 169.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 165.62$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 62c | 154.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 154.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 122.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 78c | 116.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 111.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 110.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 15c | 108.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 107.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 105.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 102.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 95.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 87.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 23c | 86.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 84.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 83.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 18c | 76.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 42c | 71.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 66.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…83cabacked Yes | 18c | 58.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…216cbacked No | 50c | 58.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 31c | 56.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 25c | 54.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…0062backed Yes | 70c | 51.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 25c | 45.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 45c | 42.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 35.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 80c | 34.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 77c | 32.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 31.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed Yes | 59c | 29.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 50c | 28.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 70c | 25.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 42c | 24.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 74c | 23.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 46c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 79c | 19.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 73c | 18.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed Yes | 76c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.