Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1b91b7c8eded3a6b79592661aa01516890cd9a55a2ce3e588b9b1dadc67a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x862b…ab17backed Yes | 0c | 18,036$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 30c | 902.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.28 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 51c | 654.69$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 65c | 651.25$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.55 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 587.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 56c | 528.28$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 39c | 451.02$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 28c | 339.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 34c | 319.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 310.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed Yes | 62c | 309.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 50c | 298.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 297.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 41c | 289.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 47c | 288.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 55c | 286.25$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 35c | 273.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…72d5backed Yes | 53c | 239.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 201.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 59c | 198.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 39c | 194.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 192.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 77c | 181.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 166.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 64c | 165.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 165.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…bc76backed Yes | 63c | 152.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 151.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 60c | 149.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 38c | 145.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 131.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 48c | 129.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 38c | 129.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 37c | 127.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 126.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 40c | 126.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 123.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed No | 42c | 111.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 108.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 39c | 107.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 37c | 106.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 106$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked No | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 20c | 91.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 64c | 88.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 57c | 86.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed Yes | 59c | 82.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 58c | 75.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 39c | 74.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 62c | 72.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…9593backed Yes | 70c | 68.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 59c | 66.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 59c | 65.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 35c | 64.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 66c | 64.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…782abacked Yes | 45c | 63.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed No | 63c | 62.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 61.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 44c | 60.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 39c | 58.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 59c | 57.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 55c | 57.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 18c | 57.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 40c | 56.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 38c | 53.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed Yes | 22c | 53.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 61c | 49.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed Yes | 58c | 48.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…16fbbacked Yes | 61c | 48.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…7819backed No | 54c | 46.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 62c | 46.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 67c | 45.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 50c | 43.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 42c | 43.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 61c | 42.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 42c | 41.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 44c | 37.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed No | 33c | 36.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 36.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked Yes | 54c | 35.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…eb33backed Yes | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 60c | 34.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 63c | 34.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 70c | 34.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 33.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 35c | 31.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 50c | 31.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 30.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.