NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x255d43976eccb6e47ccc505a77fa3cafb8ecde7098b400e485f99a80361d4897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Canadiens, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 36c | 1,602$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.72 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 914.67$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.39 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 524$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.43 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…0f44backed Canadiens | 36c | 414.67$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Canadiens | 35c | 197.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…acc7backed Canadiens | 37c | 32.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.