NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe36fd99fb24fbdc0623fcded7529299ccd41cfa2e27d05c366255bc0a62c8ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 3,880$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 56c | 2,965$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.97 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 60c | 1,807$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.67 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 1,034$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 44c | 832.5$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 44c | 832.41$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.26 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Over | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 69c | 553$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.66 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 41c | 443.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 403$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 61c | 327.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 120.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…39c7backed Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 44c | 26.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Over | 59c | 25.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…0a96backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 59c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.