MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259569ca5683eefb634b54ccdc84bc960296bd439f0d48824167b9a337ff5ffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Twins, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf29b…dd4cbacked Royals | 47c | 23,684$11,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,557.93 | 380 | 43.4%165 W · 215 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Twins | 52c | 18,296$9,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,492.08 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Twins | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,950 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Royals | 47c | 14,140$6,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,494.33 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Twins | 52c | 13,315$6,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,924.01 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Royals | 54c | 11,597$6,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,301.6 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Twins | 52c | 9,999$5,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.48 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals | 48c | 7,892$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.66 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Twins | 53c | 5,500$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Twins | 52c | 3,818$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.36 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 52c | 3,450$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.55 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…102ebacked Royals | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Twins | 52c | 2,800$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Twins | 42c | 2,624$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.2 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Twins | 52c | 2,057$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.87 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Royals | 48c | 2,008$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.16 | 207 | 48.8%101 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Royals | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.15 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Twins | 49c | 1,729$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.52 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Royals | 49c | 1,416$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.98 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Royals | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Twins | 2c | 1,140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 272 | 13.6%37 W · 235 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Royals | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Twins | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 2.9%3 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Royals | 48c | 833$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.16 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Royals | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 50c | 782.11$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.07 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Twins | 52c | 727$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.04 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Twins | 50c | 725.07$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.53 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Twins | 36c | 597.96$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.27 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Twins | 51c | 514.84$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Royals | 48c | 480.84$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.04 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | -13.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Royals | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Royals | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Twins | 20c | 391.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1148…dc44backed Royals | 49c | 346.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1451…2915backed Twins | 52c | 338.46$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Royals | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Royals | 48c | 250.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Twins | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Royals | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 313 | 47.9%150 W · 163 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Royals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Twins | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…5fc9backed Twins | 53c | 201.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Twins | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Twins | 11c | 186.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Twins | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Royals | 48c | 166$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…ca98backed Twins | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Twins | 50c | 140.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70bd…1b9ebacked Royals | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 68c | 135.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Royals | 55c | 131.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…f31cbacked Royals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Royals | 48c | 97.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Twins | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Royals | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Twins | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 39.9%214 W · 322 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Twins | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Twins | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Royals | 46c | 63.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 48c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…d004backed Royals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Twins | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4db…0a02backed Royals | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Royals | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 342 | 57.6%197 W · 145 L | +25.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…509abacked Royals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Twins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…2f53backed Royals | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 258 | 57%147 W · 111 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…c981backed Royals | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 252 | 55.6%140 W · 112 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…a256backed Royals | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Twins | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Royals | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 543 | 52.3%284 W · 259 L | +27.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…252cbacked Royals | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Royals | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 426 | 51.2%218 W · 208 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…67fdbacked Twins | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Twins vs. Royalsthis page
- Twins vs. Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.