Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259bf8a12f42214e3d1ff51e31a1a4bf681cf1a22ab9ac609641c90c6edad9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,941 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 1,735$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.15 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 1,187$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.1 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,044$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.69 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 865.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 21c | 579.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Yes | 21c | 421.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 404.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 251.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 29c | 248$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 184.14$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 41c | 182.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 29c | 181$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 164.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Yes | 7c | 141.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 29c | 114.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 38c | 105.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Yes | 29c | 93.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 18c | 78.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 32c | 78.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 74.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 22c | 73.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…dc7dbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…2020backed Yes | 29c | 68.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 67.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 66.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 132 | 58.3%77 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 65.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 29c | 60.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 57.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…4861backed Yes | 30c | 56.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…7f36backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2036…0f0fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 78c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…3cd2backed Yes | 29c | 43.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…421bbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b151backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-03-09?No won
- Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-03-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.