Us Politics · resolved market
US inauguration on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b04c45b7cf9ec42e4b2f1ebd92fcb15c4aecab83d76654faf74409d01553a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,589,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,971,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,589,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c6…ebefbacked No | 5c | 86,680$4,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,123.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 71,959$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.04 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…8fb5backed No | 3c | 70,108$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5917…7c54backed No | 2c | 57,663$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…45fdbacked No | 2c | 40,038$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed No | 2c | 35,932$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…8ce5backed No | 2c | 30,404$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…7b48backed No | 2c | 26,090$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…6dc4backed No | 1c | 25,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 21,571$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.16 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked No | 1c | 21,455$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…9e5cbacked No | 2c | 21,417$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…9bc0backed No | 2c | 21,329$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…06cdbacked No | 2c | 20,020$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…15f4backed No | 4c | 16,846$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf1…de7cbacked No | 1c | 14,056$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 0c | 12,388$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea35…cd49backed No | 5c | 10,316$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 5c | 10,000$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.63 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 3c | 9,549$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.14 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 2c | 9,197$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…3ac0backed No | 1c | 8,746$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 8,085$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be0…0aecbacked No | 2c | 7,746$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…8051backed No | 2c | 6,545$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed No | 5c | 6,320$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 5,922$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 5,507$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked No | 2c | 5,359$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed No | 1c | 4,039$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…488bbacked No | 2c | 3,933$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 11cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 2c | 3,246$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…22b2backed No | 1c | 3,175$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…0b82backed No | 4c | 3,010$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…71e1backed No | 3c | 2,957$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…c622backed No | 3c | 2,703$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…bca2backed No | 2c | 2,643$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…50fcbacked No | 5c | 2,501$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed No | 4c | 2,500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a1…c7e0backed No | 2c | 2,371$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bb…37c0backed No | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 3c | 2,154$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 2c | 2,055$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 2c | 2,054$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 5c | 1,649$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc095…1656backed No | 2c | 1,643$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…6552backed No | 5c | 1,628$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked No | 3c | 1,519$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…8444backed No | 1c | 1,508$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527b…ac58backed No | 6c | 1,476$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked No | 3c | 1,462$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 2c | 1,350$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…5e4bbacked No | 1c | 1,305$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…95a2backed No | 5c | 1,220$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…481fbacked No | 4c | 1,054$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed No | 7c | 1,006$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…2a0ebacked No | 4c | 1,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26e…5366backed No | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…9ddebacked No | 5c | 978.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f1…ecb6backed No | 2c | 918.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dce…b793backed No | 6c | 909.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…02c9backed No | 1c | 907.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed No | 3c | 892.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…61b2backed No | 2c | 879.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…e431backed No | 6c | 851$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 4c | 845.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead5…204ebacked No | 2c | 776.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba1…d21dbacked No | 2c | 687.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 500.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…7a60backed No | 4c | 459.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed No | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked No | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…38ebbacked No | 7c | 453.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ad…7478backed No | 7c | 398.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…e43cbacked No | 3c | 393.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…edfdbacked No | 5c | 388.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…4900backed No | 6c | 349.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 4c | 307.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…7db9backed No | 7c | 294.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7359…91a4backed No | 4c | 256.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.