Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25c6c924f559768aecfb95286647f4c93707ac0e00c77bb363244c8d7d7a98da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 280.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 244.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 147.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 138.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 23c | 107.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 104.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 89.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…63eebacked No | 73c | 89.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 87.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 84.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 25c | 79.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…d73dbacked No | 78c | 64.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 60.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 19c | 57.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 25c | 51.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 51.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 51.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 25c | 41.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.