Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c3afe2da1680e111c70e9c21f915678775e58f810bc093feaeff4ade2c8cd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,110$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 56c | 310.74$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 284.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 267.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 259.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 243.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 198.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 5c | 188.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed No | 79c | 173.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 164.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 63c | 158.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 20c | 157.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 56c | 156.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 8c | 142.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 119.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 114.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 55c | 108.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 107.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 103.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 20c | 102.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 50c | 100.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 96.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 49c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 88.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed Yes | 63c | 86.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 85.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 48c | 83.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 79.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 46c | 75.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 27c | 73.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 72.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 65.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 75c | 60.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 44.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 44.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 24c | 44.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 56c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ad…e485backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed Yes | 58c | 38.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…dd13backed No | 30c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed Yes | 70c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…7c67backed No | 55c | 37.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 54c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 64c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 30.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…61c1backed Yes | 44c | 29.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 29.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 47c | 22.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…7482backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 57c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 55c | 20.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 54c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed No | 77c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.